Behind the noise. The numbers are only the start.
Margins, feed, market signals, and decision-making under uncertainty on New Zealand red-meat farms — with observations from the market, the farm, and the build.
Has Godzilla taken over your farm plan?
A rigged wheel of fortune, a monster El Niño, and 100 bulls that suddenly feel like the sensible number. Anchoring doesn't make anyone do something absurd — it moves the point at which a sensible-looking action feels justified.
How much will it cost me to be last?
Five minutes ago you were comfortable with your feed position. Then someone leans on the rails and tells you everyone down the road has already sold. What the crowd is actually telling you — and what it isn't.
Everyone's feed budget is wrong. That's not the problem.
A feed budget is a forecast, and forecasts made under uncertainty are wrong by construction. The useful question isn't how to make it right — it's how wrong it can be before your decision changes.